Escalation Sandbox — Scenario Documentation¶

Overview¶

The Escalation Sandbox is a geopolitical crisis simulation within SWARM that reproduces the core dynamics observed in the Payne (2026) war game study. It implements a 10-level escalation ladder, multi-agent strategic deception measurement, fog-of-war mechanics, and configurable governance interventions.

Quickstart¶

# Run baseline scenario (scripted agents)
python -m swarm.domains.escalation_sandbox.run_scenario scenarios/escalation_sandbox.yaml

# Run with custom seed
python -m swarm.domains.escalation_sandbox.run_scenario scenarios/escalation_sandbox.yaml --seed 123

# Run deception scenario (calculating hawk vs tit-for-tat)
python -m swarm.domains.escalation_sandbox.run_scenario scenarios/escalation_deception.yaml

# Run fog stress test
python -m swarm.domains.escalation_sandbox.run_scenario scenarios/escalation_fog_stress.yaml

# Run governance interventions test
python -m swarm.domains.escalation_sandbox.run_scenario scenarios/escalation_governance.yaml

# Run Cuban Missile Crisis analogue
python -m swarm.domains.escalation_sandbox.run_scenario scenarios/escalation_cuban_missile.yaml

# Run tests
python -m pytest tests/test_escalation_sandbox.py -v

Escalation Ladder¶

Level	Action	Consequence
0	Status Quo	No cost
1	Diplomatic Protest	No material cost
2	Economic Sanction	GDP friction both sides
3	Cyber Operation	Deniable; detection risk
4	Conventional Mobilisation	High cost; hard to reverse
5	Limited Strike	Casualties; escalation trigger
6	Major Conventional War	High attrition both sides
7	Tactical Nuclear Use	Crosses nuclear threshold
8	Strategic Nuclear Strike	Catastrophic; mutual destruction
9	Full Strategic Exchange	Civilisation-ending

Key Mechanics¶

Signal-Action Divergence (Strategic Deception)¶

Agents produce both a signal (public diplomatic intention) and an action (actual escalation level). The divergence between these is the primary deception metric: signal_action_divergence = |signal_level - action_level|.

Fog-of-War (Accidental Escalation)¶

Stochastic noise applied between intended and realised escalation levels. Configured via fog_of_war section in YAML: - noise_sigma: Base noise standard deviation - positive_skew: Bias toward accidental escalation - per_level_variance_scale: Higher levels have more chaos - intelligence_reduction_factor: Intelligence quality reduces noise

Governance Levers¶

MAD Deterrence: Credible second-strike capability
Treaty Commitments: Binding level caps with defection penalties
Circuit Breaker: Automatic pause at nuclear threshold
Back-Channel: Private signal pathway with reduced fog
Mediation: Third-party de-escalation proposals
De-escalation Friction: Cost of reducing escalation level

Agent Personas¶

Persona	Behavior
`dove`	Always de-escalates, never crosses nuclear threshold
`hawk`	Always escalates, signals slightly below action (deception)
`tit_for_tat`	Mirrors opponent's last level, starts cooperative
`random`	Random levels, somewhat correlated signal
`calculating`	Cooperates early (trust-building), defects late (exploitation)
`gradual`	Escalates by 1 per turn, never backs down

Metrics¶

Metric	Definition
`escalation_max`	Highest level reached per episode
`escalation_velocity`	Mean level change per turn
`nuclear_threshold_turn`	First turn where level >= 7
`signal_action_divergence`	Mean \|signal - action\|
`trust_exploitation_index`	Early cooperation × late defection
`accidental_escalation_rate`	Fraction of fog-caused overescalation
`de_escalation_rate`	Rate of de-escalation after opponent escalates
`collateral_damage`	Cumulative civilian + economic damage
`welfare_composite`	Welfare - escalation cost - collateral
`governance_backfire_count`	Interventions that triggered more escalation

YAML Configuration¶

See scenarios/escalation_sandbox.yaml for a complete example.

Cross-Scenario Comparison¶

Dimension	AI Economist	Escalation Sandbox
Domain	Grid economy	Geopolitical crisis
Action Space	Gather, trade, build	10-level escalation
Adversarial Axis	Evasion, collusion	Deception, nuclear use
Governance	Audits, fines	MAD, treaties, mediation
Key Metric	Welfare = prod - ineq	Welfare = outcome - escalation
Failure Mode	Undetected evasion	Accidental nuclear war